Monday, February 28, 2011

                On February 18, the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, known as LISPOP, released their seat projection if there were an election held.  Their findings predicted the Conservative party winning 151 seats, which is 4 short of a majority, the Liberals winning 73 seats, the NDP winning 31 seats and the Bloc winning 53 seats.  Projections such as this are useful when observing Canadian politics because it provides an estimation of the political ideologies that are dominant in Canada at a given time.  However, while showing how Canadians are likely to vote, projections like this may also shape how Canadians vote.  Given that the Conservative party is projected to win a few seats under a majority, undecided voters may cast their votes differently with this information.  If they are in favour of majority governments but were going to vote for the NDP or Liberal, they might change their vote to Conservative in an attempt to give them the majority.  On the other hand, if they do not want a Harper majority but would have voted Conservative, they may vote for the Liberals in an attempt to prevent a Conservative majority government.  Ultimately, whatever someone chooses to take away from a seat projection, they are helpful in explaining the outcomes of election and provide the parties with an idea of what to expect in a coming election.

No comments:

Post a Comment